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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200007-200009

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
13
4
0
17
2
3
5
10
1
2
3
6
16
9
8
33

contingency table
fcst
obs
13
4
0
17
3
9
31
43
1
2
3
6
17
15
34
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
39
12
0
52
6
9
15
30
3
6
9
18
48
27
24
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
20
6
0
26
5
14
47
65
2
3
5
9
26
23
52
100

hitrate: 0.576 hitrate: 0.379
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.06 1.11 0.75
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 2.87 0.18
Heidke skill score: 0.364 Heidke skill score: 0.068
true Heidke skill score: 0.320 true Heidke skill score: 0.159
Kuipers skill score: 0.364 Kuipers skill score: 0.068
true Kuipers skill score: 0.315 true Kuipers skill score: 0.191
threat score:
0.650 0.188 0.273
threat score:
0.619 0.184 0.081
equitable threat score:
0.405 0.021 0.162
equitable threat score:
0.519 -0.020 -0.003
probability of detection:
0.812 0.333 0.375
probability of detection:
0.765 0.600 0.088
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.235 0.700 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.235 0.791 0.500
samples: 33 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 50.00 %coverage: 100.00