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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200007-200009

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
12
4
0
16
2
2
3
7
1
1
1
3
15
7
4
26

contingency table
fcst
obs
12
4
0
16
4
10
33
47
1
1
1
3
17
15
34
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
46
15
0
62
8
8
12
27
4
4
4
12
58
27
15
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
18
6
0
24
6
15
50
71
2
2
2
5
26
23
52
100

hitrate: 0.577 hitrate: 0.348
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.07 1.00 0.75
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.94 3.13 0.09
Heidke skill score: 0.365 Heidke skill score: 0.023
true Heidke skill score: 0.237 true Heidke skill score: 0.134
Kuipers skill score: 0.365 Kuipers skill score: 0.023
true Kuipers skill score: 0.231 true Kuipers skill score: 0.163
threat score:
0.632 0.167 0.167
threat score:
0.571 0.192 0.028
equitable threat score:
0.283 0.011 0.097
equitable threat score:
0.467 -0.017 -0.016
probability of detection:
0.800 0.286 0.250
probability of detection:
0.706 0.667 0.029
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.250 0.714 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.250 0.787 0.667
samples: 26 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 39.39 %coverage: 100.00