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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200007-200009

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
4
6
0
2
1
3
0
0
0
0
1
3
5
9

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
4
6
16
14
30
60
0
0
0
0
17
15
34
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
11
11
44
67
0
22
11
33
0
0
0
0
11
33
56
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
6
9
24
21
45
91
0
0
0
0
26
23
52
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.227
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
6.00 1.00 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.35 4.00 0.00
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: -0.159
true Heidke skill score: 0.182 true Heidke skill score: -0.004
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: -0.159
true Kuipers skill score: 0.261 true Kuipers skill score: -0.004
threat score:
0.167 0.500 0.000
threat score:
0.045 0.230 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.062 0.333 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.027 0.008 0.000
probability of detection:
1.000 0.667 0.000
probability of detection:
0.059 0.933 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.833 0.333 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.833 0.767 0.000
samples: 9 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 13.64 %coverage: 100.00