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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200007-200009

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
1
6
10
4
2
2
8
0
2
1
3
7
5
9
21

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
1
6
10
32
21
43
96
0
2
1
3
35
24
50
109

% contingency table
fcst
obs
14
5
29
48
19
10
10
38
0
10
5
14
33
24
43
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
1
6
9
29
19
39
88
0
2
1
3
32
22
46
100

hitrate: 0.286 hitrate: 0.229
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.43 1.60 0.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.29 4.00 0.06
Heidke skill score: -0.071 Heidke skill score: -0.156
true Heidke skill score: -0.036 true Heidke skill score: -0.009
Kuipers skill score: -0.071 Kuipers skill score: -0.156
true Kuipers skill score: -0.038 true Kuipers skill score: -0.010
threat score:
0.214 0.182 0.091
threat score:
0.071 0.212 0.019
equitable threat score:
-0.031 0.010 -0.029
equitable threat score:
-0.005 -0.002 -0.007
probability of detection:
0.429 0.400 0.111
probability of detection:
0.086 0.875 0.020
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.700 0.750 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.700 0.781 0.667
samples: 21 out of 109 samples: 109 out of 109
%coverage: 19.27 %coverage: 100.00