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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200008-200010

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
2
1
3
6
0
5
9
14
2
6
13
21

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
7
19
27
53
0
5
9
14
7
24
37
68

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
5
5
10
5
14
29
0
24
43
67
10
29
62
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
10
28
40
78
0
7
13
21
10
35
54
100

hitrate: 0.476 hitrate: 0.412
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 1.00 1.08
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.14 2.21 0.38
Heidke skill score: 0.214 Heidke skill score: 0.118
true Heidke skill score: -0.045 true Heidke skill score: 0.038
Kuipers skill score: 0.214 Kuipers skill score: 0.118
true Kuipers skill score: -0.043 true Kuipers skill score: 0.041
threat score:
0.000 0.091 0.500
threat score:
0.000 0.328 0.214
equitable threat score:
-0.033 -0.077 0.036
equitable threat score:
-0.013 0.007 0.040
probability of detection:
0.000 0.167 0.692
probability of detection:
0.000 0.792 0.243
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.833 0.357
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.642 0.357
samples: 21 out of 68 samples: 68 out of 68
%coverage: 30.88 %coverage: 100.00