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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200008-200010

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
2
1
1
4
0
5
16
21
2
6
17
25

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
7
19
19
45
0
5
16
21
7
24
35
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
8
4
4
16
0
20
64
84
8
24
68
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
11
29
29
68
0
8
24
32
11
36
53
100

hitrate: 0.680 hitrate: 0.530
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.67 1.24
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.88 0.60
Heidke skill score: 0.520 Heidke skill score: 0.295
true Heidke skill score: 0.180 true Heidke skill score: 0.195
Kuipers skill score: 0.520 Kuipers skill score: 0.295
true Kuipers skill score: 0.149 true Kuipers skill score: 0.198
threat score:
0.000 0.111 0.727
threat score:
0.000 0.380 0.400
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.005 0.223
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.078 0.169
probability of detection:
0.000 0.167 0.941
probability of detection:
0.000 0.792 0.457
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.750 0.238
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.578 0.238
samples: 25 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 37.88 %coverage: 100.00