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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200008-200010

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
1
3
1
0
2
3
0
2
6
8
2
3
9
14

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
1
3
6
21
28
55
0
2
6
8
7
24
35
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
7
7
7
21
7
0
14
21
0
14
43
57
14
21
64
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
2
5
9
32
42
83
0
3
9
12
11
36
53
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.424
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.50 1.00 0.89
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.43 2.29 0.23
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: 0.136
true Heidke skill score: 0.101 true Heidke skill score: 0.083
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: 0.136
true Kuipers skill score: 0.108 true Kuipers skill score: 0.091
threat score:
0.250 0.000 0.545
threat score:
0.111 0.362 0.162
equitable threat score:
0.160 -0.120 0.146
equitable threat score:
0.079 0.026 0.054
probability of detection:
0.500 0.000 0.667
probability of detection:
0.143 0.875 0.171
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 1.000 0.250
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.618 0.250
samples: 14 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 21.21 %coverage: 100.00