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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200008-200010

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
3
6
0
1
2
3
0
1
13
14
2
3
18
23

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
3
6
5
22
19
46
0
1
13
14
7
24
35
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
9
4
13
26
0
4
9
13
0
4
57
61
9
13
78
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
2
5
9
8
33
29
70
0
2
20
21
11
36
53
100

hitrate: 0.696 hitrate: 0.561
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.00 1.00 0.78
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.86 1.92 0.40
Heidke skill score: 0.543 Heidke skill score: 0.341
true Heidke skill score: 0.371 true Heidke skill score: 0.296
Kuipers skill score: 0.543 Kuipers skill score: 0.341
true Kuipers skill score: 0.495 true Kuipers skill score: 0.322
threat score:
0.333 0.200 0.684
threat score:
0.182 0.458 0.361
equitable threat score:
0.270 0.132 0.254
equitable threat score:
0.132 0.169 0.195
probability of detection:
1.000 0.333 0.722
probability of detection:
0.286 0.917 0.371
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.667 0.071
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.522 0.071
samples: 23 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 34.85 %coverage: 100.00