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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200008-200010

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
1
2
7
10
0
0
0
0
1
3
7
11

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
7
23
35
65
0
0
0
0
7
24
35
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
9
0
9
9
18
64
91
0
0
0
0
9
27
64
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
0
2
11
35
53
98
0
0
0
0
11
36
53
100

hitrate: 0.182 hitrate: 0.348
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 3.33 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.14 2.71 0.00
Heidke skill score: -0.227 Heidke skill score: 0.023
true Heidke skill score: -0.100 true Heidke skill score: -0.018
Kuipers skill score: -0.227 Kuipers skill score: 0.023
true Kuipers skill score: -0.145 true Kuipers skill score: -0.020
threat score:
0.000 0.182 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.348 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.048 -0.088 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.013 -0.015 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.667 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.958 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.800 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.646 0.000
samples: 11 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 16.67 %coverage: 100.00