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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200009-200011

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
1
1
0
2
1
2
0
3

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
29
29
6
64
1
1
0
2
30
30
6
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
33
0
33
33
33
0
67
33
67
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
44
44
9
97
2
2
0
3
45
45
9
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.439
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.50 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.13 0.33
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: 0.159
true Heidke skill score: 0.143 true Heidke skill score: -0.007
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: 0.159
true Kuipers skill score: 0.250 true Kuipers skill score: -0.007
threat score:
0.000 0.500 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.446 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.250 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.003 -0.023
probability of detection:
0.000 0.500 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.967 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.547 1.000
samples: 3 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 4.55 %coverage: 100.00