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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200011-200101

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
2
0
5
3
2
0
5

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
50
11
2
63
3
2
0
5
53
13
2
68

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
60
40
0
100
60
40
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
74
16
3
93
4
3
0
7
78
19
3
100

hitrate: 0.000 hitrate: 0.162
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 4.85 2.50
Heidke skill score: -0.500 Heidke skill score: -0.257
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.021
Kuipers skill score: -0.500 Kuipers skill score: -0.257
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.049
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.169 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.020 -0.021
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.846 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.825 1.000
samples: 5 out of 68 samples: 68 out of 68
%coverage: 7.35 %coverage: 100.00