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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200012-200102

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
15
12
0
27
15
12
0
27

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
19
15
5
39
15
12
0
27
34
27
5
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
56
44
0
100
56
44
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
29
23
8
59
23
18
0
41
52
41
8
100

hitrate: 0.000 hitrate: 0.227
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.44 5.40
Heidke skill score: -0.500 Heidke skill score: -0.159
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.062
Kuipers skill score: -0.500 Kuipers skill score: -0.159
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.081
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.294 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.027 -0.068
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.556 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.615 1.000
samples: 27 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 40.91 %coverage: 100.00