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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200101-200103

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
35
10
48
3
35
10
48

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
6
8
6
20
3
35
10
48
9
43
16
68

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
6
73
21
100
6
73
21
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
9
12
9
29
4
51
15
71
13
63
24
100

hitrate: 0.208 hitrate: 0.265
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 4.80
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.47 3.00
Heidke skill score: -0.188 Heidke skill score: -0.103
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.135
Kuipers skill score: -0.188 Kuipers skill score: -0.103
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.166
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.208
threat score:
0.000 0.145 0.185
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.110 -0.030
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.186 0.625
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.792
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.600 0.792
samples: 48 out of 68 samples: 68 out of 68
%coverage: 70.59 %coverage: 100.00