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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200101-200103

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
29
8
39
2
29
8
39

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
7
14
8
29
2
29
8
39
9
43
16
68

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
5
74
21
100
5
74
21
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
10
21
12
43
3
43
12
57
13
63
24
100

hitrate: 0.205 hitrate: 0.324
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 4.88
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.67 2.44
Heidke skill score: -0.192 Heidke skill score: -0.015
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.136
Kuipers skill score: -0.192 Kuipers skill score: -0.015
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.154
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.205
threat score:
0.000 0.241 0.170
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.109 -0.031
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.326 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.795
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.517 0.795
samples: 39 out of 68 samples: 68 out of 68
%coverage: 57.35 %coverage: 100.00