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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200101-200103

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
31
7
39
1
31
7
39

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
8
12
9
29
1
31
7
39
9
43
16
68

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
79
18
100
3
79
18
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
12
18
13
43
1
46
10
57
13
63
24
100

hitrate: 0.179 hitrate: 0.279
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 5.57
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.67 2.44
Heidke skill score: -0.231 Heidke skill score: -0.081
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.210
Kuipers skill score: -0.231 Kuipers skill score: -0.081
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.237
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.179
threat score:
0.000 0.200 0.146
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.152 -0.056
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.279 0.438
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.821
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.586 0.821
samples: 39 out of 68 samples: 68 out of 68
%coverage: 57.35 %coverage: 100.00