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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200101-200103

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
2
1
25
8
34
2
26
8
36

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
8
16
8
32
1
25
8
34
9
41
16
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
3
3
0
6
3
69
22
94
6
72
22
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
12
24
12
48
2
38
12
52
14
62
24
100

hitrate: 0.250 hitrate: 0.364
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.08 4.25
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.78 2.12
Heidke skill score: -0.125 Heidke skill score: 0.045
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.109
Kuipers skill score: -0.125 Kuipers skill score: 0.045
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.116
threat score:
0.000 0.037 0.235
threat score:
0.000 0.281 0.190
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.017 0.017
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.104 -0.007
probability of detection:
0.000 0.038 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.390 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.500 0.765
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.500 0.765
samples: 36 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 54.55 %coverage: 100.00