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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200101-200103

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
3
1
5
0
1
0
1
2
27
7
36
3
31
8
42

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
3
1
5
6
11
8
25
2
27
7
36
9
41
16
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
7
2
12
0
2
0
2
5
64
17
86
7
74
19
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
5
2
8
9
17
12
38
3
41
11
55
14
62
24
100

hitrate: 0.214 hitrate: 0.288
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.67 0.03 4.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.56 0.61 2.25
Heidke skill score: -0.179 Heidke skill score: -0.068
true Heidke skill score: 0.031 true Heidke skill score: -0.145
Kuipers skill score: -0.179 Kuipers skill score: -0.068
true Kuipers skill score: 0.060 true Kuipers skill score: -0.168
threat score:
0.143 0.032 0.189
threat score:
0.077 0.200 0.156
equitable threat score:
0.097 0.009 0.005
equitable threat score:
0.026 -0.115 -0.048
probability of detection:
0.333 0.032 0.875
probability of detection:
0.111 0.268 0.438
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.800 0.000 0.806
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.800 0.560 0.806
samples: 42 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 63.64 %coverage: 100.00