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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200101-200103

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
1
4
0
1
0
1
0
21
6
27
1
24
7
32

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
1
4
8
18
9
35
0
21
6
27
9
41
16
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
6
3
13
0
3
0
3
0
66
19
84
3
75
22
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
3
2
6
12
27
14
53
0
32
9
41
14
62
24
100

hitrate: 0.250 hitrate: 0.379
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
4.00 0.04 3.86
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.44 0.85 1.69
Heidke skill score: -0.125 Heidke skill score: 0.068
true Heidke skill score: 0.048 true Heidke skill score: -0.103
Kuipers skill score: -0.125 Kuipers skill score: 0.068
true Kuipers skill score: 0.098 true Kuipers skill score: -0.108
threat score:
0.250 0.042 0.214
threat score:
0.083 0.310 0.162
equitable threat score:
0.226 0.011 0.004
equitable threat score:
0.040 -0.103 -0.018
probability of detection:
1.000 0.042 0.857
probability of detection:
0.111 0.439 0.375
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.750 0.000 0.778
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.750 0.486 0.778
samples: 32 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 48.48 %coverage: 100.00