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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200102-200104

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
0
0
3
1
1
0
2
4
7
8
19
8
8
8
24

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
0
0
3
3
22
21
46
4
7
8
19
10
29
29
68

% contingency table
fcst
obs
13
0
0
13
4
4
0
8
17
29
33
79
33
33
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
0
0
4
4
32
31
68
6
10
12
28
15
43
43
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.485
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.38 0.25 2.38
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.30 1.59 0.66
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: 0.228
true Heidke skill score: 0.250 true Heidke skill score: 0.121
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: 0.228
true Kuipers skill score: 0.250 true Kuipers skill score: 0.116
threat score:
0.375 0.111 0.421
threat score:
0.300 0.415 0.200
equitable threat score:
0.286 0.040 0.132
equitable threat score:
0.268 0.071 -0.003
probability of detection:
0.375 0.125 1.000
probability of detection:
0.300 0.759 0.276
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.500 0.579
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.522 0.579
samples: 24 out of 68 samples: 68 out of 68
%coverage: 35.29 %coverage: 100.00