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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200102-200104

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
5
13
17
35
5
13
17
35

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
5
16
12
33
5
13
17
35
10
29
29
68

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
14
37
49
100
14
37
49
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
7
24
18
49
7
19
25
51
15
43
43
100

hitrate: 0.486 hitrate: 0.485
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 2.06
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.14 1.21
Heidke skill score: 0.229 Heidke skill score: 0.228
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.103
Kuipers skill score: 0.229 Kuipers skill score: 0.228
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.096
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.486
threat score:
0.000 0.348 0.362
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.060 0.065
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.552 0.586
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.514
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.515 0.514
samples: 35 out of 68 samples: 68 out of 68
%coverage: 51.47 %coverage: 100.00