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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200102-200104

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
5
9
5
19
5
9
5
19

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
5
20
24
49
5
9
5
19
10
29
29
68

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
26
47
26
100
26
47
26
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
7
29
35
72
7
13
7
28
15
43
43
100

hitrate: 0.263 hitrate: 0.368
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 3.80
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.69 0.66
Heidke skill score: -0.105 Heidke skill score: 0.051
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.103
Kuipers skill score: -0.105 Kuipers skill score: 0.051
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.096
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.263
threat score:
0.000 0.345 0.116
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.024 -0.089
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.690 0.172
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.737
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.592 0.737
samples: 19 out of 68 samples: 68 out of 68
%coverage: 27.94 %coverage: 100.00