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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200102-200104

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4
10
8
22
4
10
8
22

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
6
19
21
46
4
10
8
22
10
29
29
68

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
18
45
36
100
18
45
36
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
9
28
31
68
6
15
12
32
15
43
43
100

hitrate: 0.364 hitrate: 0.397
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 2.75
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.59 0.76
Heidke skill score: 0.045 Heidke skill score: 0.096
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.051
Kuipers skill score: 0.045 Kuipers skill score: 0.096
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.048
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.364
threat score:
0.000 0.339 0.186
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.017 -0.041
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.655 0.276
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.636
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.587 0.636
samples: 22 out of 68 samples: 68 out of 68
%coverage: 32.35 %coverage: 100.00