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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200102-200104

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
1
0
3
2
1
0
3

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
8
28
29
65
2
1
0
3
10
29
29
68

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
67
33
0
100
67
33
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
12
41
43
96
3
1
0
4
15
43
43
100

hitrate: 0.000 hitrate: 0.412
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.24 0.10
Heidke skill score: -0.500 Heidke skill score: 0.118
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.026
Kuipers skill score: -0.500 Kuipers skill score: 0.118
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.024
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.424 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.007 -0.042
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.966 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.569 1.000
samples: 3 out of 68 samples: 68 out of 68
%coverage: 4.41 %coverage: 100.00