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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200102-200104

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
3
3
8
2
3
3
8

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
8
25
25
58
2
3
3
8
10
28
28
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
25
38
38
100
25
38
38
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
12
38
38
88
3
5
5
12
15
42
42
100

hitrate: 0.375 hitrate: 0.424
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 2.67
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.07 0.29
Heidke skill score: 0.062 Heidke skill score: 0.136
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.000
Kuipers skill score: 0.062 Kuipers skill score: 0.136
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.375
threat score:
0.000 0.410 0.091
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.011 -0.013
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.893 0.107
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.625
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.569 0.625
samples: 8 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 12.12 %coverage: 100.00