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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200102-200104

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
2
1
1
4
0
3
5
8
3
4
6
13

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
9
25
23
57
0
3
5
8
10
28
28
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
8
0
0
8
15
8
8
31
0
23
38
62
23
31
46
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
14
38
35
86
0
5
8
12
15
42
42
100

hitrate: 0.538 hitrate: 0.470
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.33 1.00 1.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.10 2.04 0.29
Heidke skill score: 0.308 Heidke skill score: 0.205
true Heidke skill score: 0.235 true Heidke skill score: 0.086
Kuipers skill score: 0.308 Kuipers skill score: 0.205
true Kuipers skill score: 0.222 true Kuipers skill score: 0.080
threat score:
0.333 0.143 0.556
threat score:
0.100 0.417 0.161
equitable threat score:
0.278 -0.040 0.246
equitable threat score:
0.086 0.023 0.058
probability of detection:
0.333 0.250 0.833
probability of detection:
0.100 0.893 0.179
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.750 0.375
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.561 0.375
samples: 13 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 19.70 %coverage: 100.00