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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200102-200104

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 11.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
2
1
2
3
6
2
3
3
8

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
9
26
25
60
1
2
3
6
10
28
28
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
13
13
0
25
13
25
38
75
25
38
38
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
14
39
38
91
2
3
5
9
15
42
42
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.439
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.67 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.14 0.21
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: 0.159
true Heidke skill score: 0.200 true Heidke skill score: 0.026
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: 0.159
true Kuipers skill score: 0.190 true Kuipers skill score: 0.025
threat score:
0.000 0.250 0.500
threat score:
0.000 0.419 0.097
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.077 0.200
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.015 0.016
probability of detection:
0.000 0.333 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.929 0.107
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.500 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.567 0.500
samples: 8 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 12.12 %coverage: 100.00