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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200103-200105

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
3
1
4
0
2
2
4
1
2
6
9
1
7
9
17

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
3
1
4
4
29
22
55
1
2
6
9
5
34
29
68

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
18
6
24
0
12
12
24
6
12
35
53
6
41
53
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
4
1
6
6
43
32
81
1
3
9
13
7
50
43
100

hitrate: 0.471 hitrate: 0.515
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
4.00 0.57 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.80 1.62 0.31
Heidke skill score: 0.206 Heidke skill score: 0.272
true Heidke skill score: 0.131 true Heidke skill score: 0.093
Kuipers skill score: 0.206 Kuipers skill score: 0.272
true Kuipers skill score: 0.146 true Kuipers skill score: 0.088
threat score:
0.000 0.222 0.500
threat score:
0.000 0.483 0.188
equitable threat score:
-0.049 0.048 0.171
equitable threat score:
-0.034 0.046 0.077
probability of detection:
0.000 0.286 0.667
probability of detection:
0.000 0.853 0.207
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.500 0.333
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.473 0.333
samples: 17 out of 68 samples: 68 out of 68
%coverage: 25.00 %coverage: 100.00