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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200103-200105

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
6
2
8
1
4
7
12
1
10
9
20

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
4
30
22
56
1
4
7
12
5
34
29
68

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
30
10
40
5
20
35
60
5
50
45
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
6
44
32
82
1
6
10
18
7
50
43
100

hitrate: 0.650 hitrate: 0.544
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.80 1.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.65 0.41
Heidke skill score: 0.475 Heidke skill score: 0.316
true Heidke skill score: 0.340 true Heidke skill score: 0.111
Kuipers skill score: 0.475 Kuipers skill score: 0.316
true Kuipers skill score: 0.330 true Kuipers skill score: 0.101
threat score:
0.000 0.500 0.500
threat score:
0.000 0.500 0.206
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.250 0.186
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.062 0.065
probability of detection:
0.000 0.600 0.778
probability of detection:
0.000 0.882 0.241
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.250 0.417
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.464 0.417
samples: 20 out of 68 samples: 68 out of 68
%coverage: 29.41 %coverage: 100.00