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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200103-200105

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
6
8
15
1
6
8
15

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
4
28
21
53
1
6
8
15
5
34
29
68

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7
40
53
100
7
40
53
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
6
41
31
78
1
9
12
22
7
50
43
100

hitrate: 0.533 hitrate: 0.529
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 1.87
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.56 0.52
Heidke skill score: 0.300 Heidke skill score: 0.294
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.088
Kuipers skill score: 0.300 Kuipers skill score: 0.294
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.081
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.533
threat score:
0.000 0.475 0.222
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.046 0.054
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.824 0.276
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.467
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.472 0.467
samples: 15 out of 68 samples: 68 out of 68
%coverage: 22.06 %coverage: 100.00