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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200103-200105

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
5
10
16
1
5
10
16

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
4
29
19
52
1
5
10
16
5
34
29
68

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
6
31
63
100
6
31
63
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
6
43
28
76
1
7
15
24
7
50
43
100

hitrate: 0.625 hitrate: 0.574
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 1.60
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.53 0.55
Heidke skill score: 0.438 Heidke skill score: 0.360
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.176
Kuipers skill score: 0.438 Kuipers skill score: 0.360
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.161
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.625
threat score:
0.000 0.509 0.286
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.097 0.113
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.853 0.345
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.375
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.442 0.375
samples: 16 out of 68 samples: 68 out of 68
%coverage: 23.53 %coverage: 100.00