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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200103-200105

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
6
5
12
1
6
5
12

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
4
28
24
56
1
6
5
12
5
34
29
68

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
8
50
42
100
8
50
42
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
6
41
35
82
1
9
7
18
7
50
43
100

hitrate: 0.417 hitrate: 0.485
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 2.40
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.65 0.41
Heidke skill score: 0.125 Heidke skill score: 0.228
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.003
Kuipers skill score: 0.125 Kuipers skill score: 0.228
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.003
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.417
threat score:
0.000 0.452 0.139
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 -0.004
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.824 0.172
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.583
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.500 0.583
samples: 12 out of 68 samples: 68 out of 68
%coverage: 17.65 %coverage: 100.00