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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200103-200105

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
6
7
14
1
6
7
14

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
4
28
22
54
1
6
7
14
5
34
29
68

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7
43
50
100
7
43
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
6
41
32
79
1
9
10
21
7
50
43
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.515
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.59 0.48
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: 0.272
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.058
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: 0.272
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.053
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.500
threat score:
0.000 0.467 0.194
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.030 0.034
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.824 0.241
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.481 0.500
samples: 14 out of 68 samples: 68 out of 68
%coverage: 20.59 %coverage: 100.00