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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200103-200105

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
5
6
11
0
5
6
11

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
5
27
23
55
0
5
6
11
5
32
29
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
45
55
100
0
45
55
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
8
41
35
83
0
8
9
17
8
48
44
100

hitrate: 0.545 hitrate: 0.500
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 1.83
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.72 0.38
Heidke skill score: 0.318 Heidke skill score: 0.250
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.043
Kuipers skill score: 0.318 Kuipers skill score: 0.250
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.040
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.545
threat score:
0.000 0.450 0.176
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.010 0.040
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.844 0.207
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.455
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.509 0.455
samples: 11 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 16.67 %coverage: 100.00