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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200103-200105

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
3
0
5
3
8
0
5
6
11

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
5
27
26
58
0
5
3
8
5
32
29
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
27
27
0
45
27
73
0
45
55
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
8
41
39
88
0
8
5
12
8
48
44
100

hitrate: 0.273 hitrate: 0.455
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.60 1.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.81 0.28
Heidke skill score: -0.091 Heidke skill score: 0.182
true Heidke skill score: -0.517 true Heidke skill score: -0.048
Kuipers skill score: -0.091 Kuipers skill score: 0.182
true Kuipers skill score: -0.500 true Kuipers skill score: -0.044
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.273
threat score:
0.000 0.429 0.088
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.205 -0.205
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.032 -0.017
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.500
probability of detection:
0.000 0.844 0.103
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.625
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.534 0.625
samples: 11 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 16.67 %coverage: 100.00