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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200104-200106

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
0
1
2
3
0
0
5
5
1
1
7
9

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
2
16
43
61
0
0
5
5
3
16
48
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
11
0
0
11
0
11
22
33
0
0
56
56
11
11
78
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
3
24
64
91
0
0
7
7
4
24
72
100

hitrate: 0.778 hitrate: 0.328
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 3.00 0.71
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.33 3.81 0.10
Heidke skill score: 0.667 Heidke skill score: -0.007
true Heidke skill score: 0.571 true Heidke skill score: 0.078
Kuipers skill score: 0.667 Kuipers skill score: -0.007
true Kuipers skill score: 0.800 true Kuipers skill score: 0.133
threat score:
1.000 0.333 0.714
threat score:
0.333 0.262 0.104
equitable threat score:
1.000 0.250 0.357
equitable threat score:
0.323 0.031 0.032
probability of detection:
1.000 1.000 0.714
probability of detection:
0.333 1.000 0.104
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.667 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.738 0.000
samples: 9 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 13.43 %coverage: 100.00