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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200104-200106

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
0
6
6
1
1
6
8

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
2
16
42
60
0
0
6
6
3
16
48
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
13
0
0
13
0
13
0
13
0
0
75
75
13
13
75
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
3
24
63
90
0
0
9
9
4
24
72
100

hitrate: 1.000 hitrate: 0.343
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 1.00 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.33 3.75 0.12
Heidke skill score: 1.000 Heidke skill score: 0.015
true Heidke skill score: 1.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.090
Kuipers skill score: 1.000 Kuipers skill score: 0.015
true Kuipers skill score: 1.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.151
threat score:
1.000 1.000 1.000
threat score:
0.333 0.267 0.125
equitable threat score:
1.000 1.000 1.000
equitable threat score:
0.323 0.037 0.039
probability of detection:
1.000 1.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.333 1.000 0.125
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.733 0.000
samples: 8 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 11.94 %coverage: 100.00