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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200104-200106

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
1
3
2
0
1
3

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
16
45
62
2
0
1
3
3
16
46
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
67
0
33
100
67
0
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
2
25
69
95
3
0
2
5
5
25
71
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.262
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 -- 3.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.88 0.07
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: -0.108
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.008
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: -0.108
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.014
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.333
threat score:
0.000 0.258 0.021
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.016 -0.024
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.022
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.742 0.667
samples: 3 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 4.62 %coverage: 100.00