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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200105-200107

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
1
6
9
2
1
6
9

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
6
22
30
58
2
1
6
9
8
23
36
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
22
11
67
100
22
11
67
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
9
33
45
87
3
1
9
13
12
34
54
100

hitrate: 0.667 hitrate: 0.418
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 1.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.52 0.25
Heidke skill score: 0.500 Heidke skill score: 0.127
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.077
Kuipers skill score: 0.500 Kuipers skill score: 0.127
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.084
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.667
threat score:
0.000 0.373 0.154
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.053 0.034
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.957 0.167
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.333
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.621 0.333
samples: 9 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 13.43 %coverage: 100.00