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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200105-200107

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
0
0
2
2
1
1
7
9
2
1
9
12

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
6
22
29
57
1
1
7
9
8
23
36
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
8
0
0
8
0
0
17
17
8
8
58
75
17
8
75
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
9
33
43
85
1
1
10
13
12
34
54
100

hitrate: 0.667 hitrate: 0.448
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 2.00 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.12 2.48 0.25
Heidke skill score: 0.500 Heidke skill score: 0.172
true Heidke skill score: 0.186 true Heidke skill score: 0.129
Kuipers skill score: 0.500 Kuipers skill score: 0.172
true Kuipers skill score: 0.190 true Kuipers skill score: 0.141
threat score:
0.500 0.000 0.636
threat score:
0.125 0.379 0.184
equitable threat score:
0.455 -0.059 0.059
equitable threat score:
0.112 0.063 0.065
probability of detection:
0.500 0.000 0.778
probability of detection:
0.125 0.957 0.194
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.222
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.614 0.222
samples: 12 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 17.91 %coverage: 100.00