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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200105-200107

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
1
1
6
8
2
1
6
9

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
6
22
30
58
1
1
6
8
8
23
36
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
11
0
0
11
0
0
0
0
11
11
67
89
22
11
67
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
9
33
45
87
1
1
9
12
12
34
54
100

hitrate: 0.778 hitrate: 0.433
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 0.00 1.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.12 2.52 0.22
Heidke skill score: 0.667 Heidke skill score: 0.149
true Heidke skill score: 0.419 true Heidke skill score: 0.109
Kuipers skill score: 0.667 Kuipers skill score: 0.149
true Kuipers skill score: 0.325 true Kuipers skill score: 0.120
threat score:
0.500 0.000 0.750
threat score:
0.125 0.373 0.158
equitable threat score:
0.438 0.000 0.250
equitable threat score:
0.112 0.053 0.050
probability of detection:
0.500 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.125 0.957 0.167
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.250
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.621 0.250
samples: 9 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 13.43 %coverage: 100.00