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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200105-200107

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
1
2
5
2
1
2
5

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
6
22
34
62
2
1
2
5
8
23
36
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
40
20
40
100
40
20
40
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
9
33
51
93
3
1
3
7
12
34
54
100

hitrate: 0.400 hitrate: 0.358
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 2.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.70 0.14
Heidke skill score: 0.100 Heidke skill score: 0.037
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.001
Kuipers skill score: 0.100 Kuipers skill score: 0.037
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.001
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.400
threat score:
0.000 0.349 0.051
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.017 -0.019
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.957 0.056
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.600
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.645 0.600
samples: 5 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 7.46 %coverage: 100.00