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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200105-200107

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
2
4
1
1
2
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
7
22
34
63
1
1
2
4
8
23
36
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
25
25
50
100
25
25
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
10
33
51
94
1
1
3
6
12
34
54
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.358
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.74 0.11
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: 0.037
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.005
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: 0.037
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.006
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.500
threat score:
0.000 0.344 0.053
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.009 -0.004
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.957 0.056
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.651 0.500
samples: 4 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 5.97 %coverage: 100.00