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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200105-200107

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
2
1
4
1
2
1
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
7
21
35
63
1
2
1
4
8
23
36
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
25
50
25
100
25
50
25
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
10
31
52
94
1
3
1
6
12
34
54
100

hitrate: 0.250 hitrate: 0.328
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 4.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.74 0.11
Heidke skill score: -0.125 Heidke skill score: -0.007
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.041
Kuipers skill score: -0.125 Kuipers skill score: -0.007
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.046
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.250
threat score:
0.000 0.323 0.026
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.014 -0.031
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.913 0.028
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.750
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.667 0.750
samples: 4 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 5.97 %coverage: 100.00