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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200106-200108

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
2
5
1
8
2
3
16
21
4
8
17
29

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
7
17
22
46
2
3
16
21
9
20
38
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
7
17
3
28
7
10
55
72
14
28
59
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
10
25
33
69
3
4
24
31
13
30
57
100

hitrate: 0.724 hitrate: 0.493
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.00 1.24
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.30 0.55
Heidke skill score: 0.586 Heidke skill score: 0.239
true Heidke skill score: 0.448 true Heidke skill score: 0.178
Kuipers skill score: 0.586 Kuipers skill score: 0.239
true Kuipers skill score: 0.398 true Kuipers skill score: 0.192
threat score:
0.000 0.455 0.727
threat score:
0.000 0.347 0.372
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.318 0.381
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.093 0.132
probability of detection:
0.000 0.625 0.941
probability of detection:
0.000 0.850 0.421
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.375 0.238
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.630 0.238
samples: 29 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 43.28 %coverage: 100.00