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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200106-200108

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4
7
14
25
4
7
14
25

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
5
13
24
42
4
7
14
25
9
20
38
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
16
28
56
100
16
28
56
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
7
19
36
63
6
10
21
37
13
30
57
100

hitrate: 0.560 hitrate: 0.403
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 1.79
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.10 0.66
Heidke skill score: 0.340 Heidke skill score: 0.104
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.007
Kuipers skill score: 0.340 Kuipers skill score: 0.104
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.007
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.560
threat score:
0.000 0.265 0.286
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.013 -0.005
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.650 0.368
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.440
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.690 0.440
samples: 25 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 37.31 %coverage: 100.00