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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200106-200108

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
4
5
8
17
0
3
5
8
4
8
13
25

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
9
17
33
59
0
3
5
8
9
20
38
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
16
20
32
68
0
12
20
32
16
32
52
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
13
25
49
88
0
4
7
12
13
30
57
100

hitrate: 0.400 hitrate: 0.328
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.12 0.62
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.95 0.21
Heidke skill score: 0.100 Heidke skill score: -0.007
true Heidke skill score: 0.026 true Heidke skill score: -0.003
Kuipers skill score: 0.100 Kuipers skill score: -0.007
true Kuipers skill score: 0.027 true Kuipers skill score: -0.004
threat score:
0.000 0.250 0.312
threat score:
0.000 0.274 0.122
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.030 0.071
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.014 0.013
probability of detection:
0.000 0.625 0.385
probability of detection:
0.000 0.850 0.132
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.706 0.375
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.712 0.375
samples: 25 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 37.31 %coverage: 100.00