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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200106-200108

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
1
2
1
1
0
2
1
6
5
12
2
8
6
16

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
1
2
8
13
32
53
1
6
5
12
9
20
38
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
6
6
13
6
6
0
13
6
38
31
75
13
50
38
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
1
3
12
19
48
79
1
9
7
18
13
30
57
100

hitrate: 0.375 hitrate: 0.269
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.25 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.22 2.65 0.32
Heidke skill score: 0.062 Heidke skill score: -0.097
true Heidke skill score: 0.024 true Heidke skill score: -0.111
Kuipers skill score: 0.062 Kuipers skill score: -0.097
true Kuipers skill score: 0.026 true Kuipers skill score: -0.128
threat score:
0.000 0.111 0.385
threat score:
0.000 0.217 0.111
equitable threat score:
-0.067 0.000 0.059
equitable threat score:
-0.025 -0.064 -0.047
probability of detection:
0.000 0.125 0.833
probability of detection:
0.000 0.650 0.132
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.500 0.583
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.755 0.583
samples: 16 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 23.88 %coverage: 100.00