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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200106-200108

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
1
5
6
12
2
5
6
13

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
8
15
32
55
1
5
6
12
9
20
38
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
8
0
0
8
8
38
46
92
15
38
46
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
12
22
48
82
1
7
9
18
13
30
57
100

hitrate: 0.462 hitrate: 0.313
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.20 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.75 0.32
Heidke skill score: 0.192 Heidke skill score: -0.030
true Heidke skill score: 0.011 true Heidke skill score: -0.051
Kuipers skill score: 0.192 Kuipers skill score: -0.030
true Kuipers skill score: 0.010 true Kuipers skill score: -0.058
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.500
threat score:
0.000 0.250 0.136
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.068 0.071
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.033 -0.022
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.750 0.158
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.727 0.500
samples: 13 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 19.40 %coverage: 100.00