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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200106-200108

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
2
1
3
3
7
2
4
3
9

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
8
17
35
60
1
3
3
7
9
20
38
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
11
11
0
22
11
33
33
78
22
44
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
12
25
52
90
1
4
4
10
13
30
57
100

hitrate: 0.444 hitrate: 0.299
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.50 2.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.00 0.18
Heidke skill score: 0.167 Heidke skill score: -0.052
true Heidke skill score: 0.135 true Heidke skill score: -0.042
Kuipers skill score: 0.167 Kuipers skill score: -0.052
true Kuipers skill score: 0.135 true Kuipers skill score: -0.049
threat score:
0.000 0.200 0.429
threat score:
0.000 0.270 0.071
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.027 0.143
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.020 -0.026
probability of detection:
0.000 0.250 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.850 0.079
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.500 0.571
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.717 0.571
samples: 9 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 13.43 %coverage: 100.00