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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200106-200108

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
2
3
3
8
2
3
4
9

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
7
17
35
59
2
3
3
8
9
20
38
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
11
11
22
33
33
89
22
33
44
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
10
25
52
88
3
4
4
12
13
30
57
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.299
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.33 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.95 0.21
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: -0.052
true Heidke skill score: -0.174 true Heidke skill score: -0.048
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: -0.052
true Kuipers skill score: -0.154 true Kuipers skill score: -0.056
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.333
threat score:
0.000 0.274 0.070
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.091 -0.102
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.014 -0.040
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.750
probability of detection:
0.000 0.850 0.079
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.625
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.712 0.625
samples: 9 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 13.43 %coverage: 100.00